Major League Baseball Betting Line

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Baseball Betting

Different from football and basketball point spread odds, and puck lines in hockey, run lines are offered as the primary baseball spread betting option. Pregame run lines list the favorite at -1.5 runs and they must win the game by two runs or more. Underdogs open with a +1.5 run head start and need to win outright or lose by just one run. Ties are not possible with standard run lines and tickets are graded after nine innings plus any extra innings that may be played. The standard run line for a Major League Baseball game is usually -1.5/+1.5, while point spreads are 2.5 or even 3.5. If you are confident the team you bet on is going to win and win with ease, then point spreads (if available) is a bet type you should consider.

MLB Gambling Probability and Handicapping

Major League Baseball, referred to by fans and sports journalists as simply MLB, is not only considered “America’s Pastime,” it is the oldest sport still played in the United States. Now made up of thirty teams split into two conferences, MLB was once a small group of independent teams. The first pro ball club, The Cincinnati Red Stockings, is still a member of America & Canada’s professional baseball league, though you may know them better as the Cincinnati Reds. For a team founded in 1869 to still be competing nearly 150 years later is a testament to the rich history and fan fever that surrounds pro baseball.

Handicapping Pro Baseball Games

The sheer length of baseball’s history (stats and trends can be examined over the course of a century and a half) gives certain types of sports gamblers all they need to build a basic betting strategy. Handicapping baseball games is easier than in most other sports for a few reasons. First, the impact a high-quality starting pitcher at the top of his game (or a player with a hot bat) can have means that it’s easy to find little differences between teams that can give you some insight into the outcome using very little time. The second thing MLB handicappers have going for them is a long season: each squad plays 162 games in the span of about 180 days, providing a wealth of statistical knowledge to mine while making picks on games. Finally, because so many books provide opportunities for MLB wagering, handicappers can combine their baseball wisdom with line shopping tactics to give themselves the best possible return on investment.

How to Read Baseball Odds

But of course, before you even worry about learning to shop for lines, handicapping players and teams, or developing your bankroll strategy, you need to understand how baseball odds are represented. A number of different ways exist to bet on the outcome of baseball games, and you can learn all there is to know to bet like an old pro in just a few minutes.

Let’s make up a game and set of odds in order to explain how they work. Let’s say you walk into a sportsbook or load an online sports gambling venue and look at their baseball lines. Since you’re a Cubs fan, the game pops off the page. It may look something like this:

121 – Chicago Cubs / John Smith / +135 / Over 7.5 -115
122 – Milwaukee Brewers / Jack Pierce / -125 / Under 7.5 +105

Yes, baseball odds even look different than those for football, basketball and the other sports that use traditional point spreads. But once you learn, you’ll be able to read a baseball betting board in no time.

The first number is the code used by the book to indicate a team – it’s easier for bettors to yell out a number than the name of the team and it makes life easier on sportsbook employees as well. After the team’s name is the starting pitcher, followed by the money line, then the over/under or totals option.

Money Line Bets in Professional Baseball

Understand first that betting on the money line is by far the most popular way to wager on MLB. These type of wagers are sometimes called “straight bets,” and ask the gambler to pick which team will win. There’s no point spread in these bets; as long as the team you put money on wins the game, you’re a winner. Unfortunately, picking the better team isn’t all you have to do.

The majority of the time, the money line for a given team will be some number that’s greater than 100, and that number can be shown as either a positive or negative with the use of plus and minus signs. Numbers of -101 or fewer indicate favorites; the larger the number after the minus sign, the heavier of a favorite they are. Teams with a plus sign in front of their money line are underdogs. Again, the larger the number, the less likely that team is to win in the eyes of the bookmaker.

When betting on an underdog, the money line number indicates how much you win for bets in units of $100. In our above example, a bet of $100 on the Cubs would net you an additional $135 plus your original stake. Should you choose to bet on the favored team, the Milwaukee Brewers, the money line number tells you how much you’d have to wager to win $100, in our case $125.

Run Lines & MLB Wagering

But baseball bettors aren’t limited to money lines only – various run line bets are available that make MLB wagering similar to point spread games. Because baseball games are often decided by two or three runs, it’s common to see lines around 1.5 runs in either direction. Using half-points prevents ties.

If you bet on a run line of +1.5, your team has to win by two or more runs for you to earn a pay-off. On a -1.5 run line, a team could lose by a single run and still put money in your pocket. Sound like a point spread? It basically is, except that the prices of laying run line bets varies more than traditional spread bets. The number after the run line tells you how much you stand to win for a wager of $100 or how much it will cost you to win $100, depending on whether you’re betting favorites or not.

MLB Picks, the Good, the Bad, and the Just Plain Dumb

There’s a saying in baseball that started appearing in the modern era, when schedules were set at 162 games: every team is going to win 54 games and every team is going to lose 54 games . . . what a team does with the other 54 games determines their performance in a given season.

One of the dumbest things you can when hunting down MLB picks is depend heavily on a tout service that will sell you their opinions of the outcomes of games (and point you towards good game investment opportunities) for a fee. Truth is, anyone can access Major League Baseball’s massive stat archive and do enough research to handicap games. Even the best MLB pickers in the world rarely have a success rate of more than 60%, so assuming that handicappers and touts can help you win money any better than you can do on your own is just plain dumb.

Want to bet on the world’s biggest and most popular pro baseball club? Spend a little time handicapping games, look for value by shopping for the best possible lines, and be patient.

Now that we have a set date for Major League Baseball Opening Day and have a good handle on how the new schedules, rosters, and rule changes will work, we can dig in deep and start handicapping the 2020 MLB season. All of the major sportsbooks adjusted their lines when these adjustments were announced, and as a sharp bettor, you need to understand why the books moved these lines, and how to take advantage of it.

In the next several days before the July 23rd Opening Day, we here at The Sports Geek are going to take a deep dive into each of the division’s various betting odds, and give you the sharp betting advice that you need to make money betting on Major League Baseball in 2020. We will kick things off today, with the division that I think is the best in baseball this year, the American League West. Let’s get started!

Houston Astros

  • Odds To Win The World Series (+850)
  • Odd To Win American League (+350)
  • Odds To Win Division (-167)
  • Odds To Make The Playoffs (-360)
  • Win Total Over/Under 35.5

The Roster

There aren’t many teams that can hang with the Astros when it comes to raw talent. That being said, the offseason was not kind to Houston. The headliner was losing ace pitcher, Gerrit Cole. But they also lost other impact players like Wade Miley, Jake Marisnick, Will Harris, and Robinson Chirinos. On top of losing several quality players, they also fired their GM and manager as part of the sign-stealing scandal, and they did almost nothing to bring talent back to Houston to make up for the significant losses.

#Astros initial Player Pool for 2020 Summer Camp. #ForTheHpic.twitter.com/a6H1BS6wWe

— Houston Astros (@astros) June 28, 2020

The Astros will absolutely have less talent than last season, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have enough firepower to get them back to the World Series. They still have sluggers like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alverez, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman. They will also have Zack Greinke for the entire season after bringing him over for the playoff push last year, and Lance McCullers Jr seems to be healthy and ready to go after missing all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery.

The Schedule

The schedule in the AL West is going to be tough. With at least four teams that have legit shots at making the postseason, there aren’t going to be many soft games on the schedule for Houston in the division. The schedule does start out light for Houston, though, as they have games against the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Colorado Rockies during their first full month of play. You can expect Houston to start out hot with an easy schedule.

Astros release 2020 schedule pic.twitter.com/jGt4mqQIBZ

Major League Baseball Scores

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 6, 2020

But the second half is going to be brutal for the Astros as they have ten games against the Texas Rangers, a team that is far better than most people are giving them credit for, as well as series against the Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, and Los Angeles Dodgers in the final month of the season. The Astros will pace the AL West for much of the year, but can they hold on to first place in the final few days of the season?

Season Outlook

If karma is really a thing, the Astros aren’t going to win a single game this year. After being caught up in one of the biggest scandals in Major League Baseball history, they didn’t show nearly as much remorse as I would have liked to have seen, and they are going to have a huge target on their back in 2020.

The talent is there, but with a brand new manager and GM, and a retooled rotation, I think the Astros will regress from last season. This isn’t the year that you want a new manager trying to figure things out as they go, and I think that will cost the Astros in 2020. They will be solid, but don’t expect another trip to the World Series, and they are going to be in a dog fight for the division title.

The Bet

The Astros 35.5 wins target is one of the highest in baseball. If the Astros were to go over the total, they would need to finish with at least a 36-24 record. That is a winning percentage of .600. In a full 162-game season, that would mean they would have to win 98 games. Only four teams won at least that many games in 2019, and while Houston was one of them, I think come up short of that rate of excellence this season, and I am taking the under 35.5 wins for Houston as my bet.

Oakland Athletics

  • Odds To Win The World Series (+2500)
  • Odd To Win American League (+1300)
  • Odds To Win Division (+275)
  • Odds To Make The Playoffs (-118)
  • Win Total Over/Under 33.5

The Roster

The Oakland Athletics don’t have the big-name players like the Astros have, but this roster has a lot of talent on it. Oakland won a very quiet 97 games last year, which was tied for the fifth-most wins in the Major Leagues, yet they still get very little respect. When you look at this roster as a whole, they are strong everywhere, with no glaring weakness.

They did lose a bunch of their pitching staff, including Homer Bailey, Tanner Roark, and Blake Treinen. But when you look at their projected rotation, I think that they have improved. Frankie Montas returns after missing half of last season with a PED suspension and was a leading Cy Young candidate last year when he got pinched, as he was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA. Rookie Jesus Luzardo is a rookie phenom at twenty-two years old and was unhittable in a brief stint with the team last year, when he posted a 1.50 ERA in 6 appearances.

Here’s the A’s 60-man player pool, which stands at 54 players for now: pic.twitter.com/8CqvaDHkhz

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) June 28, 2020

The other big addition for Oakland is getting their best hitter, Khris Davis, back healthy. Davis hit at least 40 home runs with over 100 RBI in three straight seasons before battling injuries all of last season and struggling. He is now healthy with the long layoff, and if he can get right back to being one of the best power hitters in the American League, Oakland will have enough offense to compete with Houston for the division title.

The Schedule

We already talked about the divisional games being tough for the AL West this year, so Oakland is going to have its fair share of tough games. But where they catch a break is at the end of the year. Oakland finishes the season with six of their last nine games against the San Francisco Giants and the Seattle Mariners.

Complete 2020 Oakland Athletics 60 game MLB schedule. pic.twitter.com/up4wPVpQXZ

— Sean Cunningham (@SeanCunningham) July 6, 2020

In a season that is almost certainly going to come down to the wire, The A’s get to finish up with some soft games down the stretch. Oh, and did I mention that all of those six games are going to be at home? They also get the advantage of playing seven of the ten games against Houston, at home as well. If there was one series to circle on the calendar for the AL West in 2020, it is the series between the A’s and Astros, in Oakland, on September 7-10. Whichever team wins that series likely wins the division.

Season Outlook

I am very high on Oakland in 2020. They won a bunch of games last year, and that was without their best pitcher, Frankie Montas, and their best hitter, Khris Davis, on the field for long stretches. They are healthy this year, and I think they are going to surprise a lot of people. They have a strong rotation, great defense, and powerful hitting. Don’t be shocked if the A’s find a way to win the division, and when Jesus Luzardo is the breakout Rookie of the Year winner, remember, you heard it here first.

The Bet

There are several bets that I think show value on Oakland right now, as I think they are undervalued all over the board. But the one that sticks out to me the most, is their odds to win the AL West Division at +275. If I had to pick an outright favorite to win this division, I would take Oakland. The fact that I can back the A’s getting some juicy dog money, just makes the bet that much sweeter.

Los Angeles Angels

  • Odds To Win The World Series (+3500)
  • Odd To Win American League (+1500)
  • Odds To Win Division (+550)
  • Odds To Make The Playoffs (+225)
  • Win Total Over/Under 32.5

The Roster

The Angels made the biggest splash in the division when it comes to bringing in talent in the offseason when they brought in World Series hero Anthony Rendon from the Washington Nationals on a huge free-agent contract. Signing Rendon to a deal worth nearly a quarter of a billion dollars tells me that the Angels are ready to win now.

Our player pool for Summer Camp was announced yesterday. 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ftGA3yKw90

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) June 29, 2020

And while you can’t argue against that signing, Rendon is a great player, it didn’t address the Angel’s biggest need, pitching. The lineup will be fierce with Rendon joining Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani, but the pitching staff is in shambles. They brought in Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to try and aid the rotation, but neither of those guys excite me much, and the rest of the staff ranges from average to awful.

The Schedule

The Angels schedule isn’t front-loaded or back heavy like the Athletics and Astros, as they have their tough games sprinkled in evenly with their easier games. But two things do stick out to me about this schedule that don’t bode well for the Angels.

July 24 can’t come soon enough. @CampingWorldpic.twitter.com/C8J0xdnqI7

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 6, 2020

First, they play six out of their first nine games against the Athletics and the Astros. If they come out of the gates slow against the two teams that they are likely to be chasing this season in the division, they may not have enough time to make up for it later.

And second, the final three games of the year come against the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that many people see as the best team in the baseball this year. If the Halos hit that final weekend needing a series win or sweep against the Boys in Blue to make the playoffs, I don’t like their chances.

Season Outlook

Haven’t we seen this same song and dance before in LA? They bring in a big splashy name in free agency, the fans get all hyped up for a World Series run, only to be let down by an underachieving team. Do the names Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton ring a bell to anyone? We have seen this movie before, and we know the ending.

After owning the AL West at the turn of the century when they won five out of six division titles between 2004-2009, the Angels have won just one division title in the last decade, despite always spending plenty of money. In the last four seasons, they have had a Rookie of the Year winner, Shohei Ohtani, and two Mike Trout MVP seasons, yet they have not once finished with a winning record. I expect the same in 2020, lots of hype, but not many wins.

The Bet

The Angels are on the exact opposite end of the spectrum of the Athletics, as they are overvalued on nearly every bet. The A’s won twenty-seven more games than LA did last year, yet the price for them to win the American League this year is nearly identical? Their win totals this season are only separated by one win? This is lunacy. Don’t fall into this trap again. I am taking the under 32.5 wins, and it feels like I am stealing.

Texas Rangers

  • Odds To Win The World Series (+8000)
  • Odd To Win American League (+5000)
  • Odds To Win Division (+1600)
  • Odds To Make The Playoffs (+650)
  • Win Total Over/Under 28.5

The Roster

While the moves made by the Rangers in the offseason weren’t as flashy as the Angels, I think Texas is the most improved team in the AL West in 2020. They managed to pick up former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, as well as veteran starters Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles.

They match those three new guys up with incumbents, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, two guys that both finished in the top ten of the American League Cy Young Award voting in 2019, and all of the sudden the Rangers have one of the best rotations in the game.

They also beefed up their lineup with the addition of veteran hitters Robinson Chirinos and Todd Frazier. But the big X-factor for the Rangers in 2020, is Joey Gallo. Gallo was having a breakout season last year before getting hurt and missing nearly 100 games.

The fun starts Friday! #TogetherWepic.twitter.com/GnTsj3WOHr

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) June 28, 2020

Gallo has always been known for his power, he has hit at least 40 home runs in each of his two full MLB seasons, but last year he took that to another level. In 70 games in 2019, Gallo smashed 22 home runs, and more importantly, hit nearly 50 points higher than his career batting average. The young slugger could easily turn into an MVP level hitter this year, and if he does, the Rangers are going to be a lot better than everyone thinks.

The Schedule

The Rangers have a start to the season that is going to allow them to get out of the gates fast if they are playing well. Their first eight games are all against NL West teams that are expected to miss the playoffs in 2020. Games against the Rockies, Giants, and DBacks are all going to be winnable for Texas. Getting off to a hot start is going to be crucial for Texas, as they could shut things down early if they stumble out of the gates.

The Rangers will open their 2020 60-game schedule on Friday, July 24 against the Colorado Rockies at the new Globe Life Field.
https://t.co/EIzhyah118

— WFAA (@wfaa) July 7, 2020

Where the Rangers are really going to be tested is in September, when they play a murderer’s row of AL West teams late in the season. All ten of their games against the Houston Astros come in September, and they also have games against the Athletics and Angels, who could still be in playoff contention by that time of the season.

Season Outlook

It is going to be boom or bust for Texas this year. If they start out the year winning games against soft competition, they are likely to make a move or two at the deadline to add talent. If they are 2-6 after that first set of games, they are going to really struggle the rest of the way out and could move guys like Kluber or Gibson at the trade deadline.

Many people don’t realize this, but if the season were only 60 games last year, the Rangers would have made the playoffs. They were better in 2019 than people thought, and they are better in 2020, than people think now. I like this Rangers team a lot, but the late-season schedule scares me away from thinking they are going to win the division title.

The Bet

When you look at that brutal September schedule for Texas, it is hard to think that they are going to be able to dominate late in the season. That means they are going to have to build a up a big lead in the division standings early in the season, and I don’t see that happening. Don’t get me wrong, it could happen, but to see them jump out to the 20-10 start that they likely need to hang on, is unlikely.

Where I do see value, though, is on their odds to make the playoffs at +650. The second wild card spot could easily go to a team with a losing record in 2020. With the season being so quick, anything close to a .500 record is going to keep you right in the playoff hunt all season long. Since the second wild card was instituted in 2012, we have seen seven teams make the playoffs with fewer than 90 wins.

The 2017 Twins won just 85 games and nabbed the second wild card spot. That is a .524 winning percentage. A team that goes 31-29 this year would have a winning percentage of .514. 29-31 is going to get you close, and 30-30 could get you in. That is right where I see the Rangers finishing this year, so I love backing them to make the playoffs, at a very attractive price.

Seattle Mariners

  • Odds To Win The World Series (+50000)
  • Odd To Win American League (+25000)
  • Odds To Win Division (+8000)
  • Odds To Make The Playoffs (+1200)
  • Win Total Over/Under 24.5

The Roster

It is all about youth for the Mariners in 2020. It has been a long time since the Mariners had many elite prospects if their farm system, but after unloading nearly all of their veteran talent in 2019, they finally have some young guns in the pipeline.

Betting

But, with so many young guys fighting for playing time and experience, that will likely force the Mariner’s hand to continue to offload what little Major League talent they have left on the roster, to open up spots for the next generation of Mariners players.

Mariners Announce Initial 60-Man Player Pool https://t.co/sYL04f7WSApic.twitter.com/vglk2ZLhbH

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) June 28, 2020

Major League Baseball Betting Line Explanation

Guys like Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager, and Mitch Haniger are all potential trade candidates as winning isn’t going to be a big part of the equation for Seattle in 2020. If they can flip one of those veterans to open up playing time for prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, or Julio Rodriguez, while also getting even younger, they are going to do it.

The Schedule

The schedule isn’t going to matter much for Seattle as they aren’t going to be trying to win games. The first fourteen games of the year are against divisional opponents, and they will be underdogs in every one of those games.

MLB announces 2020 60-game regular season schedule. The #Mariners will open the 2020 season on July 24 at Houston; their first game at T-Mobile Park will be July 31 against Oakland.

Read: https://t.co/DwIVlAXnYlpic.twitter.com/olycJXUDVM

— Mariners PR (@MarinersPR) July 6, 2020

Last year, the Mariners shocked everyone when they exploded out to a 13-2 start, tied for the best 15 game record in MLB history. If they do that again this year, they will only need to play .500 ball the rest of the season to make the playoffs.

But it’s not happening, so quite dreaming Mariners fans. By the time that Seattle hits their soft spot in the schedule, a ten-game stretch against the bottom of the NL West, it will be late September, and the season will already have been over for weeks.

Season Outlook

As a lifelong Mariners fan, I am actually looking forward to this season. I get to see Jarred Kelenic, Evan White, and Braden Bishop play in the Big Leagues. In the first time in a long time, I see a bright future for the Mariners. After a decade of coming up just short of the playoffs, I don’t mind burning a year or two if it means we come out on the other side of this rebuild with a team that could actually contend for the first World Series title in franchise history. We burned it to the ground in 2019, and I am OK with that.

Major League Baseball Betting Lines

The Bet

The only upside on this team is if that these young guys all suddenly mature at once. Think 2018 Atlanta Braves or 2020 Chicago White Sox. But most of these players wouldn’t have sniffed the majors in 2020 if it wasn’t for the minors being canceled, and conventional wisdom says Seattle is still a year or two away from really maturing. That tells me that Seattle will continue to gut this roster as much as they can, and I see this team losing a lot of games. I hate to fade my own team, but I am jumping on the under 24.5 wins.

Wrap Up

Mlb Daily Betting Lines

Thanks for reading and make sure that you stay tuned to The Sports Geek all season long where we give you all of the sharp Major League Baseball betting advice that you need to make money betting baseball in 2020!